Economic forecast sees uptick in valley

By Sonia Fernandez, Voice Staff Writer

The Goleta Valley’s economic growth was slow in the years since incorporation, but there are signs that it’s picking up, according to the 12th Annual Goleta Valley Economic Forecast.

Sponsored by the Goleta Valley Chamber of Commerce, the meeting was held last week at UCSB’s Corwin Pavilion and featured economist Dr. Bill Watkins, who spoke on the general state of the Goleta Valley economy. Other speakers that morning spoke on housing for the workforce and transportation strategies.

Using the Gross Product, the total value of all goods and services produced, the report indicated that Santa Barbara County’s economic growth experienced a slowdown in 2006, due in part to a slowing in productivity. The South Coast economy — thanks to the tech sector, UCSB and tourism — remains stable. Goleta’s economic growth last year was slow as well — a rise of $150 million — but exceeded the growth rate of the county’s.

Meanwhile, population in the city of Goleta has declined, said the forecast, and is expected to continue its decline for the foreseeable future. In fact, said Wakins, the city is “losing population faster than any other city in the county.”

As for employment, job growth was described as “slow or negative” since the city’s incorporation, but picked up last year by about 1 percent. This is partially due to more commuters.

Retail sales in the city declined last year by 1.4 percent, reflecting a countywide trend.

As for real estate trends, housing sales were slow in 2006, but the forecast expects “a gradual recovery in 2008.” Overall, single-family home prices fell in the area, reflecting a statewide trend, but are not expected to drop much more. Furthermore, development is picking up, as permits issued for residential and non-residential units have increased since 2006.

 

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